Bookmaker's corner: factional Eurovision - the spark that will revive the entertainment market

A year after the postponement, the Eurovision final returns this Saturday (25 May), with European broadcasters expecting a record audience for the International Pop Music Competition in Europe live.

SBC is getting detailed information on what may be the most difficult market for bookmakers to evaluate, given the live performances, conflicting judgments, cultural biases and, as always, conflicting political attitudes in Europe.

_________________________

SBC: After a year of canceled events and an awful Oscar watching. Can Eurovision 27010 revive the bookmaker's entertainment markets?

Harry Aitkenhead (PR manager @ Coral): We are very much looking forward to Eurovision this year and are confident that the players are also based on our early bets. Traditionally, this is one of the largest non-sporting events on our calendar every year, this year on par with the mayoral elections for London.

The sheer number of countries hosting the Part means there is always value for flutter players, and this is in contrast to the Oscars, where the smaller pitches are often dominated by very low price favorites. Eurovision provides bettors with a multitude of countries that are ready to win, and they will receive good income from supporting any of the ten or twelve countries participating in the bet.

Another popular bet is that the UK will finish last, and we have seen this already this year, as the 2-1 odds have been reduced from 4-1. It will be an awful long time before we see the UK win again! "

SBC: European broadcasters expect record audiences to tune in for this Saturday's live broadcast. finale - following the traumatic 2021, is Europe in the mood for power ballads, disco anthems or chic pop tunes?

Patrick Flynn (@ Smarkets Policy Analyst): Eurovision this year is the closest prediction market in a long time. In the days leading up to the finals, no entry contains more than a 30% chance of winning according to our original market. This contrasts with previous years, when market favorites traded at 49% (Netherlands 2019), 45% (Cyprus 2018) and 45% (Italy 2017).

Currently at the top of our market are the modern Italian glam rockers Måneskin with 30%, followed by Barbara Pravy from France in 22 % with her by the song of Piaf-esque 'Voilà'.

In third place is the early favorite Destiny from Malta in 16%, and at number four - Go_A from Ukraine, combining traditional Ukrainian folk music. with modern electronics to great success. Ukraine has sharply increased its chances after Tuesday's semifinal performance, rising from 2% to 9% in just a few days.

Gyon closes the top five. Tears for Switzerland, currently trading at 7%. Switzerland was my first choice to win the competition, although they dropped their chances last week after choosing an unexpectedly avant-garde production in rehearsals. Nonetheless, they climbed 4% and are certainly still vying to take home the trophy on Saturday.

At Smarkets we place a lot of emphasis on Eurovision this year has already had more than 11 times our average trading volume in the competition at the moment in the calendar. I'm looking forward to what could be a great Saturday night finale!

SBC: Starting Saturday, Malta becomes a strong foreign favorite to win Eurovision 27010. Will the gambling center break its duck and become Eurovision champion for the first time?

Anthony Cousins (Head of Sportsbook @ Kindred Group Plc): Eurovision-obsessed Malta has become one of the favorites for the first time in years, but has now dropped to third place, although it is firmly contested at the current odds of 5. 75 to become Eurovision winners.

Malta is represented by Destiny Chaknier, who previously achieved fame in the Junior Eurovision Song Contest by winning the 2015 version. She was also part of the 2019 Maltese Eurovision team as a backing vocalist.

Her entry this year is titled “ Je me casse ”And despite the French title, this is an English song that has been well received by many critics and is expected to be very well recognized by the international jury.

Its performance among viewers is still ongoing. To evaluate, we have seen many surprises in the years since the introduction of the televoting concept, but among our clients it has attracted 13% betting in the winning market, which is larger than Italy with 8% (3. 118) and France 7% (4. 75).

In fact, only Switzerland has attracted more bets from our clients with 16% bets, even though they have higher odds on the 16.00 market and have been drifting in the last few days.

SBC: In the face of James Newman "Embers - Light in the Room" for the UK ... Europe's beloved neighbor?

Paddy Power: The United Kingdom's recent record for the Eurovision Song Contest was far from inspiring, and the chances that James Newman's embers will light the room are pretty slim. In fact, we do it 2015/1 that he claims to be the crown this year, and it is unlikely that he will make the top five, with the current odds of 45/1.

What is much more realistic is the likelihood that the UK will receive zero points. Newman has just 8/1 to not score any points on Saturday night. Oh.

The favorites, Italy, 2/1 to win the competition is from 12/5 yesterday, while France is also short 3/1, but deviated slightly from 15/5.

So it looks like the UK won't be a big hit in Europe this weekend. If only there was some kind of organization designed to more closely connect the country with Europe in order to help improve international relations ...